MON, NOV 2, 2026 | UPDATED 3:18 PM IST

Dixon Share Price Surges 11% Despite 49% Profit Drop: Here’s Why Brokerages Still See 45% Upside

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Dixon Share Price Surges 11% Despite 49% Profit Drop Here's Why Brokerages Still See 45% Upside

Dixon Technologies shares surged as much as 11% on Monday, November 2, 2026, to an intraday high of ₹12,199, despite reporting a 49% decline in net profit for Q2 FY27 .

The Paradox: Revenue Up, Profit Down

The contract manufacturer reported 47% year-on-year revenue growth to ₹21,794 crore, driven by its Mobile & Other EMS division, which contributed 92% of quarterly revenue . Mobile revenue alone rose 50% year-on-year to ₹20,093 crore .

However, reported net profit fell 49% to ₹344 crore, and EBITDA margin contracted sharply to 3.1% from 7.1% a year earlier . The decline was largely due to one-off gains in the prior-year quarter—a ₹465 crore fair-value gain on Aditya Infotech and a ₹28 crore gain from the lighting business transfer—that were not repeated this year .

Excluding these one-off items, adjusted EBITDA rose 8% to ₹609 crore and adjusted PAT increased 19% to ₹293 crore. But adjusted EBITDA margin still declined by one percentage point to 2.8% .

Why the Stock Rose Anyway

The market focused on the revenue beat and forward-looking catalysts. Kotak Neo upgraded the stock to Buy from Add, noting that Q2 revenue exceeded its estimate by 6.4% and profit beat by 4% . Nuvama also upgraded to Buy from Hold, citing the recent correction in the stock .

The bigger story is Vivo. Dixon expects the Vivo joint venture to begin contributing from Q4 FY27, with management targeting mobile volumes of 55-60 million units in FY28 including Vivo, up from the FY27 guidance of 33-34 million units excluding Vivo .

Brokerage Targets: Up to 45% Upside

  • Anand Rathi: Buy, target ₹18,000

  • Emkay Global: Buy, target ₹16,400 (trimmed from ₹16,700)

  • Motilal Oswal: Buy, target ₹15,900 (44.5% upside)

  • UBS: Buy, target ₹15,600 (41.8% upside)

  • Nuvama: Upgraded to Buy, target ₹14,900

  • Kotak: Upgraded to Buy, fair value ₹14,900

Jefferies, however, maintained a Hold rating, while Elara downgraded the stock to Reduce, flagging slowing earnings growth and persistent margin pressure .

The Margin Question

The core risk is whether Dixon can expand margins as it scales. Mobile volumes in Q2 stood at 9.5 million units, down 7% year-on-year, while average selling prices rose about 35% due to higher memory prices . The company is betting on backward integration—display and camera module manufacturing—to support 80-100 basis points of margin expansion over the next two years .

What to Watch

The Vivo integration timeline and the pace of component manufacturing ramp-up are the two catalysts that could justify the premium valuation. Until then, the stock remains a bet on volume growth over near-term profitability.

FAQ

Q1: Why did Dixon shares rise despite a 49% profit drop?
The profit decline was largely due to one-off gains in the prior-year quarter. Adjusted PAT rose 19%, and the market focused on 47% revenue growth and the upcoming Vivo JV contribution .

Q2: What is the highest brokerage target for Dixon?
Anand Rathi has the highest target at ₹18,000, followed by Emkay at ₹16,400 and Motilal Oswal at ₹15,900 .

Q3: When will Vivo start contributing to Dixon’s revenue?
Dixon expects Vivo integration to begin contributing from Q4 FY27, with FY28 mobile volume targets of 55-60 million units including Vivo .

Q4: What is Dixon’s margin outlook?
Management expects display and camera module manufacturing to support 80-100 basis points of margin expansion over the next two years .

BSMAURYA ✓
BSMAURYA Verified Author
Senior Financial Analyst & Business Researcher

Specializing in actionable wealth strategies, MSME models, smart investing, and welfare schemes in India.

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